In Portland’s crowded city races, media endorsements appear to have played an influential role. Of the twelve council winners, 11 received at least one endorsement from The Oregonian, Willamette Week, or Portland Mercury. The sole candidate who won without such an endorsement was Loretta Smith in District 1. Smith’s success may be attributed to her name recognition from two terms as Multnomah County Commissioner and multiple runs for other high-profile positions.
Willamette Week’s endorsement was most strongly associated with electoral success, with eight of its endorsed candidates winning, compared to seven for Portland Mercuryand five for The Oregonian.
Among council candidates, the win rate for those with at least one of these media endorsements was approximately 30%. For candidates with multiple endorsements, the win rate rose to about 71%. Only two out of seven candidates with more than one of these media endorsements failed to secure a seat: Michelle DePass, endorsed by both Willamette Week and Portland Mercury, and Eli Arnold*, endorsed by Willamette Weekand The Oregonian.
For mayoral candidates, these media endorsements likely also boosted electability. Notably, Keith Wilson—the winner—snagged Willamette Week’s endorsement, which was most highly associated with success, as well as the Portland Mercury’s endorsement. Runner-up Carmen Rubio secured the Portland Mercury’s endorsement, and Rene Gonzalez was endorsed by The Oregonian.
*Eli Arnold is currently in fouth place in the District 4 race, which has not been called yet.
